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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 56

Atlanta Falcons 42 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to HOU 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-C.Shorts ran ob at HOU 26 for 16 yards (42-P.DiMarco). PENALTY on ATL-47-J.Harris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 26. Penalty on ATL-54-N.Stupar, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.16 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP