Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 40 yards to JAX 31, Center-45-M.Overton. 41-N.Marshall MUFFS catch, recovered by JAX-35-D.McCray at JAX 30. 35-D.McCray to JAX 30 for no gain (57-J.McNary; 92-B.Werner).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.27 EP
54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model