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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 15

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(:09) 2-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +3.85 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 15, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model