4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 46

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 19-B.Anger punts 38 yards to IND 8, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-G.Whalen to IND 14 for 6 yards (46-C.Tinker).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.65 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model