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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 40

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 1-P.McAfee punts 39 yards to JAX 1, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-27-W.Guy.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.47 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model