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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 88

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 19-B.Anger punts 47 yards to IND 41, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-G.Whalen to JAX 49 for 10 yards (41-N.Marshall).

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 88, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model