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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 14

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.41 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model