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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 19-B.Anger punts 38 yards to IND 10, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-G.Whalen.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model