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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 36

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 4-A.Vinatieri 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.12 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model