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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 2

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 2-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 2, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP