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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 74

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 10-K.Huber punts 67 yards to KC 7, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.56 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 32, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP