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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 26

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.33 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model