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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 17

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(:09) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.74 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model