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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 22

Kansas City Chiefs 12 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 5-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.87 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model