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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 15

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to KC 25, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.82 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model