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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 11

Kansas City Chiefs 15 – Cincinnati Bengals 29

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 5-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model