4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 18 – Cincinnati Bengals 36

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 5-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.66 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model