4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 76

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to NYG 36, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-65-G.Sanborn.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.65 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 76, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP