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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 46

New York Giants 16 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to BUF 7, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP