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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 94

Buffalo Bills 3 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 6-C.Schmidt punts 62 yards to NYG 32, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 17-D.Harris to NYG 47 for 15 yards (33-R.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.94 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 94, worth -5.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 52, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model