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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 86

New York Giants 16 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(:32) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to BUF 38, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 47 for 9 yards (59-D.Kennard, 94-M.Herzlich).

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 86, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 44, worth -2.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model