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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 33

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 2-D.Carpenter 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.44 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 33, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model