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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(3:10) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to NYJ 14, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 25 for 11 yards (42-S.Paysinger).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.61 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP