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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:26) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 59 yards to NYJ 12, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 27 for 15 yards (46-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.75 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model