Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to NYJ 13, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 25 for 12 yards (52-K.Sheppard). Penalty on NYJ-55-L.Mauldin, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. PENALTY on NYJ-23-D.McDougle, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.69 EP
70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -2.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model