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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(7:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 84-J.Cameron (21-M.Gilchrist).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.14 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model