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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 23

New York Jets 27 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 2-N.Folk 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.87 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model