Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 41

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(3:30) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 10-K.Stills.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP

What Happened

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.91 EP
73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP

KICK -0.34 EP

47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
53% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model