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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 50

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 39 yards to NYJ 11, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.77 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model