Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 86

New York Jets 27 – Miami Dolphins 14

(8:13) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 51 yards to MIA 35, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-J.Landry pushed ob at NYJ 40 for 25 yards (30-Z.Stacy).

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.36 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 86, worth -5.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model