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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 9

Miami Dolphins 14 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(5:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 14-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Revis at NYJ -6. Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-14-J.Landry, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 20.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.21 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 9, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.75 EP