Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 55

New York Jets 27 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(3:15) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 39 yards to MIA 16, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds. Penalty on MIA-31-M.Thomas, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.28 EP
68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -2.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model