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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 26

Miami Dolphins 14 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left intended for 84-J.Cameron INTERCEPTED by 20-M.Williams at NYJ -3. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.11 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.19 EP