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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 86

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(9:21) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to NYJ 38, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.02 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 86, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 44, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model