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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 4

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(4:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 4, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP