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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to WAS 27, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder. PENALTY on PHI-13-J.Huff, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.95 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 23, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model