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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 71

Washington Commanders 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to PHI 29, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles. PENALTY on WAS-47-Q.Dunbar, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 29.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP