4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 35

Washington Commanders 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.39 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP