Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 90

Washington Commanders 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

(7:41) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to 50, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.94 EP
66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 90, worth -5.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model