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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 45

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback. PENALTY on WAS-26-B.Breeland, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.06 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP