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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 88

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to WAS 47, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 41 for -6 yards (21-J.Couplin).

The Three Options

GO -3.77 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.86 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 88, worth -5.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model