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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 20

Washington Commanders 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(:56) 3-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.21 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 20, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model