Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Arizona Cardinals 6

(9:07) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to ARI 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 17 for 9 yards (15-B.Marquez).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.12 EP
59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model