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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 12

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 4-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.14 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model