4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 24

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 7-C.Catanzaro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.98 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model