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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 78

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(:48) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to ARI 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 23 for 2 yards (38-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.43 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 35, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model