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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 20

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 7-C.Catanzaro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.12 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 20, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model