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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 92

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Arizona Cardinals 12

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to ARI 48, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 48 for no gain (50-C.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO -3.85 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.65 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 92, worth -5.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 50, worth -2.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model