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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 62

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 1-P.McAfee punts 53 yards to HOU 9, Center-45-M.Overton. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 45 for 36 yards (84-J.Doyle). PENALTY on HOU-20-J.Rolle, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at HOU 9.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.31 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model