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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to HOU 25, Center-45-M.Overton. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 36 for 11 yards (55-N.Irving).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.57 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model